Frans Harve Heuvicq 04/24/24

Before I started this article, I kind of knew that drafting QB’s in the first round of the NFL draft was not an exact science. Too many times have I seen in the last 40 years that the hopes of teams and their fans were lifted to enormous heights on draft day, only to see them squashed within a couple of years.

The question I ask myself is : ‘what are these teams scouting departments, coaches, general managers doing?’

We know that before a team drafts a player -let alone a QB- in the first round, they have poured over hundreds of hours of game film, they have interviewed players, coaches and they saw them at work either at the combine, pro days or on the field during games.

After all that work, I would expect that any player drafted in the first round would be able to start in year 1, get to grips with the NFL in year 2 and shine by year 3, if not sooner as expected from his draft status. I understand that QB might be more difficult than any other position, so giving first round QB’s three years should be enough to start performing and winning playoff games. Not so if you look at the list of the 102 QB’s drafted in the first round since 1983. Why 1983? Well, it is a nice round number 40 years, but also because the 1983 draft shows what is possible. Five QB’s drafted that year, yielding 3 Hall of Famers.

*Elway drafted by Baltimore Colts traded immediately to Denver Broncos

**E.Manning drafted by San Diego Chargers traded immediately to New York Giants

***Mc Nair drafted by Houston Oilers who became Tennessee Titans

****Rivers drafted by NY Giants traded immediately to San Diego Chargers

*****Everett drafted by Houston Oilers played for LA Rams

Let’s dive into the numbers. First chart is the raw numbers of QB’s drafted in round 1 since 1983. With a total of 102 drafted, we have an average of 2,55 per year. So some years 5 QB’s, some 1 or even none. What I then did is divide them into brackets/groups:

• Hall of Fame
• Super Bowl (won or played)
• Playoffs 5+ : QB’s who played in 5 or more playoff games
• Playoffs 2-4 : QB’s who played in 2-4 playoff games
• Playoffs 1 : 1 playoff game
• Start 50 + games
• Start 33-49 games
• Start 17-32 games
• Start 1-16 games

Below you can see how many feature in each category. Of course QB’s that have only been drafted the last couple of years can not always score high. So I also added a ‘projected’ list. This list is where I think current (or retired in the case of HOF) players might end up. In this adjusted list you can see that only 26,5% of QB’s drafted in round 1 will end up in the Hall or play in a Super Bowl. An astonishing 21,6% will not start more than two full seasons, so right of the bat we know that almost 1 in 5 will be a ‘bust’.

I wanted to score the groups and reduced them from the above 9 to the below 6. Each group received points from 1-50. At a rate of 2,55 QB’s per year, if we would draft 10 QB’s in a four year span, then this would yield the following numbers : 2-3 QB’s will become HOF or play in a Super Bowl (26,5%), 4 will play one to several playoff games, but never reach a Super Bowl (39,2%) and 3 will be a (solid) starter or a plain bust (34,3%). Now that is a sobering thought and perhaps an interesting piece of information for fans that will end up with one of those first round QB’s on Thursday. Do not get your hopes up, the odds are not in your favor that your prized first rounder will ever reach a Super Bowl.

Perhaps Dave Dameshek was right. Billions of people on earth and we can not get 32 solid starting QB’s in the NFL. Why then would you think your first round pick will do the trick.

What gets me even more is that people who actually make a living out of grading college prospects can be way off themselves. I had much respect for Mike Mayock who was the draft guru for NFL Network and I remember him barely being able to hide his disdain for a Raiders draft pick as an analyst. But then he became the general manager of the Raiders and none of Mayock’s first round picks in the 2020 and 2021 NFL drafts (Henry Ruggs, Damon Arnette, and Alex Leatherwood) lasted a little more than a year with the team. So I am wondering what scouts and general managers see when they look at a college players or  QB’s and if there is at least a baseline for QB’s that can guarantee some success : completion percentage – complexity of offensive scheme – played tough defenses – pre snap reads – post snap adjustments – leadership, can anyone show me the draft report where these traits showed up for, let’s say Dwayne Haskins, Josh Rosen, Jake Locker, Patrick Ramsey and Jamarcus Russell – all players drafted in the first round who were busts and showed none of the above.

Looking at the list you might wonder why Rex Grossman (CHI) is rated higher than Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. Well to start with, Jackson and Allen have some years to play and can move up , even considerably – but Grossman did what the fans expected – get them to the Super Bowl. At least what you want from your first round pick, even if he never gets to a Super Bowl , is that he plays in several playoff games every year and you know your team has a chance with this player to reach the Super Bowl. Jackson and Allen fit that mold and might get to a Super Bowl.

So which teams are actually successful according to this scoring system? Who has the highest average? Surprisingly 3 teams from the AFC East in the top 5. And 3 teams from the NFC West in the bottom 6. There must be something in that atlantic air compared to that pacific smell that brings draft success. New Orleans doesn’t count – they have never drafted a round 1 QB since 1983. Teams in green have won a Super Bowl with the round 1 QB they drafted, teams in blue have won a Super Bowl with a QB not drafted in round 1 since 1983.

Now which colleges do these QB’s come from and how successful are these colleges in delivering the goods. Remarkeably the West coast is top 3 in the amount of QB’s drafted (USC, Oregon, UCLA). On total score it is again West Coast but this time Stanford, California and UCLA with Miami (Fla) in second place. If we look at it from average points per QB, 8 out of the 12 schools are not actually power houses

If we look at it on a year to year basis then it is clear that 1983 is an outlier with 2004 a distant second. Interestingly 2020, 2018 and 2017 are already top 10 and could move up even further in the list with the likes of Burrow, Love , Herbert, Tua, Allen, Jackson and Mahomes.

So in the end how do we categorize these groups in our minds. Well, unless you are the Saints your team has drafted  one of these in the past – who will they pick next?

• Spot on
• Got you to the promised land
• Contenders
• Pretenders
• Bouncers and barmen

Players in green can move up one or more categories, players in blue are active players who can go up – who knows?

So what about Tom Brady (6^th round) and Kurt Warner (undrafted), (future) Hall of Famers and Super Bowl winners or even Brock Purdy (Mr. Irrelevent) who lost a Super Bowl? Well as wrong as teams were on a lot of first rounders, all of them missed the mark on these guys, so do not despair if your team picks up a QB in later rounds. If one or two QB’s have been taken and you are sitting at 3-7 with generational talents at other positions, hope and pray that your team takes them and does not take a flyer on a QB that might or might not pan out. Then again a team without a QB is lost at sea and that is why teams reach, because no team wants to start the season without some hope that their QB can bring them to the promised land.

Let us know what you think. Which QB in this year’s draft will be spot on and which one(s) are a stretch?